PlantSuccess Newsletter

Volume III, Issue 5

5 March 2003

Dear Subscriber:

We’re just a week shy of 18 months since the terrorist attacks of 9-11 and much longer than that since the US economy -- at least from the standpoint of capital investment -- was anything to brag about. Few thought the US would go this long without have another major attack; we’ve obviously had success on that front. The economic front has another set of hurdles; with the greatest being the likely war with Iraq.

The Dismal Scientist, from Economy.com, offers the following as its baseline scenario:

War in the first quarter is likely to have a modest negative economic impact, but set the stage for better growth ahead.
As for the direct budget cost of the war itself, Economy.com assumes a minor impact. The war is assumed to cost $50 billion in fiscal 2003 (equal to about half a percent of GDP).
The $50 billion price tag is unlikely to have much of a stimulative impact, because little spending will occur either this year or on domestically produced goods and services. Since Vietnam, the conflicts the U.S. has engaged in, from Kosovo to Afghanistan, have involved relatively few troops and limited loss of equipment, save for ordinance.
A quick and successful conflict would go a long way toward lifting the economy’s largest current burden—uncertainty. Economy.com estimates that uncertainty over war has cut GDP growth by at least half a percentage point since mid-2002, mainly through postponed business investment spending.
Another likely benefit from the end of hostilities will be cheaper, perhaps plunging, oil prices. While it may be the case that Hussein tries burning oil wells as he did in Kuwait in 1991, the current high prices in the world are not there for lack of actual supply, but fear about future supply.

Economy.com concludes, “It is, of course, very possible that things could go worse than expected militarily. In this case, confidence may be further paralyzed. The ultimate uncertainty is whether any conflict will result in a 9/11-type terrorist blowback on the U.S. mainland.” This uncertainly will be removed soon.

We went ahead with PlantSuccess 2001 just three weeks after the terrorist attacks; we will go ahead with PlantSuccess Gulf Coast 2003, 9-10 April at the Hilton Houston NASA Clear Lake. The conference theme is “Best Practices Driving Plant Performance;“ keynoter Doug Walker, an executive with ExxonMobil, recently retired after an illustrious career of 34 years, follows the lead set by executives from DuPont, Rohm and Haas, Bayer, Rhodia, Dow Chemical and Air Products. Under the theme “Best Practices Driving Plant Performance,” Walker will “set the conference table” with his presentation, “The Environment for Competitive Success,” for another outstanding roster of innovative managers.

Visit www.PlantSuccess.com to:

Review abstracts and the agenda
Review prior presentations
Register online for PlantSuccess Gulf Coast 2003
Read a review and order the first in a new series of books, “Circle of Knowledge” by John Voeller, chief knowledge officer and chief technology officer for Black & Veatch Corporation.

Best regards,

Carl Howk, Chairman

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Featured Sponsors

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PlantSuccess values the support of many sponsors with leading products and services marketed to the owner-operators, all of which have been successfully implemented numerous time and can be demonstrated to improve plant operations and maintenance. Attend PlantSuccess; visit our sponsors.

AVEVA Group plc (LSE:AVV) is one of the world’s leading and fastest growing lifecycle engineering IT solutions and services providers to the process and power industries The Group reported pre-tax profits for the year ended 31 March 2002 of GBP4.9 million on a turnover of GBP31.8 million.

AVEVA Group plc operates through three divisions: AVEVA Consulting, AVEVA Managed Services and AVEVA Engineering IT. Formerly known as Cadcentre, the Group’s technology has been integral to the engineering process of industrial plants with a value in excess of US$500 billion for more than 800 clients across the globe, including leading plant owner/operators and engineering contractors such as 3M, ALSTOM Power, BASF, Daewoo Heavy Industries, DuPont, Electricité de France, Halliburton, Hitachi, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Krupp Uhde, Kvaerner, Merck, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Petronas Carigali, Samsung Engineering and Shell.

Headquartered in Cambridge, England, AVEVA Group plc and its operating subsidiaries currently employ about 350 staff in 25 offices and seven business regions worldwide, with 18 representative offices establishing a presence on six continents.

Ivara Corporation enables companies to maximize asset reliability. Ivara’s reliability driven maintenance solution includes a unique combination of expertise and enabling software technology. This software and services combination helps companies to do The Right Work at the Right Time, resulting in strategic benefits that include increased output and revenue, superior quality and customer service, and improved safety and environmental integrity.

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Knowledge Management

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Join industry leader John Voeller as moderator for the topic: “KM - Getting Tangible About the Intangible” and his panel, other industry leaders and KM practitioners:

Carol Arnold, Leader - DuPont Engineering University

Peter Engstrom, VP for Corporate Development, SAIC

Jill Kennard, Business Manager for Knowledge Management, DuPont

John McQuary, VP of Global Automation & Knowledge Management, Fluor

Charles Rowney, Chief Knowledge Officer, CDM

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Current Links

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Millions of dollars and many years later few have achieved the benefits they expected.

Cited in a new report from Accenture’s Institute of Strategic Change – “The Return of Enterprise Solutions: The Director’s Cut.” From the report: “Although most large corporations began implementing enterprise systems in the mid- to late-1990s, millions of dollars and many years later few have achieved the benefits they expected. According to Accenture’s research, a clear majority have achieved half or less of the benefits they targeted.” READ MORE.

Preparing for the Next Gulf War

What is the Emerging Storm? It’s a metaphor for the confusion, conflict and sometimes violent clashes of interest and ideologies in a globalized world. Gartner Group’s French Caldwell, Knowledge & Content Management, Collaboration & E-Learning, has put together an outstanding series of articles, all of which are relevant to many of us today: READ MORE.

"Act Now to Minimize the Impact of War With Iraq"

"CIOs, HR Executives: Prepare Your Workforce for War"

"Offshore Outsourcing Vendor and Enterprise Action Items"

"Reinforce Cyberdefenses Against 'Hactivism'"

"Telecommuting in Wartime: Draft a Remote-Access Program"

"The Last-Minute Checklist for Emergency Preparedness"

"Tighten Global Supply Chains for War"

"Using the Internet to Distribute Operations in Wartime"

The PlantSuccess Newsletter generates a substantial number of visits to our website, we welcome the interest and the access to previous issues of the Newsletter which are available there. If you'd like to share this newsletter with a colleague, just forward a copy. Subscribe or cancel by sending a request to Carl.Howk@PlantSuccess.com

Full links to Volume III, Issue 5 Newsletter articles: