PlantSuccess Newsletter
Volume
II, Issue 28
December
4, 2002
Dear
Subscriber:
Regardless
of our work or financial situation, the state of the US economy impacts all of
us -- our families, our companies and our future. Unfortunately, its not easy
for the layman to understand the state of the economy. Moreover, it seems that I
have lots of company, even among the avowed professionals, in not understanding
or being able to explain, the state of our economy.
Irwin
Kellner, Chief Economist for CBS MarketWatch
recently wrote in the Economy.com Newsletter: “It has now been three
calendar quarters since the U.S. economy stopped contracting—long enough to ask
the question, is last year's recession over? The answer, of course, is that it
all depends. In an official sense, the recession won't be over until the
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the generally acknowledged arbiter
of the business cycle, says it's over.
From
another standpoint, however, the answer is irrelevant, since circumstances for
both individuals and specific companies usually vary significantly from those of
the nation as a whole. In other words, to those who have lost their jobs and
have been unable to find new ones, or to the firm that continues to suffer
declining sales and earnings, it will be a recession or worse, no matter what
the umpire may or may not declare.”
Kellner
continues: “There is a psychological factor that enters into the picture as
well. Declarations by the NBER—especially when it comes to announcing that a
recession is over—can sometimes help the economy along. In other words, if
people and businesses are told that better times are coming, they might well act
in such ways that help bring them about.”
Ah, now
I understand.
I think
I understand productivity growth, its source and its effect on GDP growth and
inflation. The current report on improved productivity – growing at a rate of
5.1 percent through the summer -- is great news. This rate is against a 1.7
percent pace in the 2nd quarter and an estimated 4 percent growth in
the 3rd quarter. The latest productivity number is likely to raise
the estimate in 3rd quarter GDP growth, which has already been raised
from 3.1 percent to 4 percent.
This is
good news. For the 12 months ending September, productivity grew at a brisk 5.6
percent pace, representing the strongest showing since the first quarter of
1973.
Participants in PlantSuccess and other
innovative managers of our complex process facilities are doing the right things
with new technologies and old-fashioned management styles in challenging times.
It’s working. PlantSuccess will continue to chronicle success stories regarding
current technologies driving plant performance.
Join us
for PlantSuccess Gulf Coast
2003, 9-10 April at the
Hilton Houston NASA Clear Lake. We are working on the conference agenda; if
you have an interest in participating as a sponsor, speaker or moderator, please
let me know.
Best
regards, Carl Howk.
Chairman
******************
Current
Links
******************
Conventional
wisdom says that when the going gets tough, the tough get going.
People
are working harder now confirms John Eckhouse in a comprehensive article
for Optimize Magazine as he addresses many of the issues pitting strategy
against tactics. READ
MORE
“As scandals erode confidence in corporate executives and a sluggish world economy depresses revenues and profits, it is clear that the world of business faces major challenges and a new environment. At such a time, a new approach to leadership is critical, according to Stewart Friedman, a management professor at Wharton who recently returned from a two-year stint as director of Ford Motor Company's Leadership Development Center. This approach, which he calls "total leadership," must aim at generating faster and more agile means to achieve better business results. That can only happen, he says, if business leaders are authentic, have integrity, and are creative about how they deal with their work, their family lives, and their relations with their communities.” READ MORE
There remains an illusion among
investors, especially professional money managers and analysts, that with enough
digging and number-crunching, uncertainty can be conquered. Unfortunately, it
can't, claims James Glassman in the current issue of Tech Central
Station.
Certainly this illusion is not limited to investors and many of us can benefit by applying Glassman’s observations elsewhere; the state of my portfolio gives me a profound need to understand this article and the client newsletter from Marshfield Associates that he references so well. READ MORE
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colleague, just forward a copy. Subscribe or cancel by sending a request to Carl.Howk@PlantSuccess.com
Full
links to Volume II, Issue 28 Newsletter articles: